Simulated July precipitation (mm) evolution, shown as deviations from the preindustrial mean (1,000–250 yr BP). a Scandinavia (preindustrial mean=45.9 mm), b northern North America (preindustrial mean=62.9 mm), c Greenland (preindustrial mean=63.7 mm) and d northern Eurasia (preindustrial mean=65.7 mm). The unfiltered results of MAIN are shown by the thin gray line, whereas the thick lines represent the 100-point running averages of MAIN (black) and ICE (dark gray).
Scandinavia forms an exception, as the summer precipitation is not changing here (Fig. 10 a and Table 1 ), although locally a decrease is noted on the 0 –9 k-anomaly map (Norwegian coast, Fig. 9 ).
In the other regions, the reductions in summer precipitation over 9 kyr are much more substantial (29, 7 and 17% for North America, Greenland and northern Eurasia, respectively, Fig. 10 b–d and Table 1 ).
The model experiment has not captured this marked decrease in precipitation (Fig. 10 a), although a reduction is simulated in Northern Scandinavia (Fig. 9 ).
Our model produced a long-term cooling of ~1.5°C (Figs. 4 c, 8 b) and a precipitation reduction (Fig. 10 d) that agrees well with this paleoclimatic evidence.
A comparison of the maps showing precipitation anomalies (Fig. 8 ) and sea-ice changes (Fig. 10 ), shows that the maximum precipitation reduction (40–60 mm month -1 ) is found in Northern Canada close to the region with maximum expansion in sea-ice cover (up to +60%) during summer and autumn.
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